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V-Lab

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.71%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

26.84%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

27.31%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 45% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0408
23.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1016
32.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8658
433.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0459
8.92***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days