V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.71%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
26.84%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
27.31%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 45% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0408 | 23.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 32.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8658 | 433.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0459 | 8.92*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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