V-Lab
Taisei Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
28.85%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
29.42%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
31.39%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1274 | 5.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1985 | 10.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7781 | 66.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0110 | 0.33 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1274 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1985 | 10.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7781 | 66.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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