V-Lab
Taisei Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
34.89%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
35.73%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
37.59%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1236 | 7.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1243 | 8.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7839 | 35.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.08 |
| γ2 | 0.0916 | 1.39 |
| γ3 | -0.1652 | -3.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.0531 | 1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.1018 | 2.27** |
| γ6 | -0.1616 | -3.21*** |
| γ7 | 0.1413 | 2.56** |
| γ8 | -0.0789 | -1.40 |
| γ9 | 0.0526 | 1.16 |
| γ10 | -0.0540 | -1.84* |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1236 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 8.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7839 | 35.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.08 |
| γ2 | 0.0916 | 1.39 |
| γ3 | -0.1652 | -3.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.0531 | 1.14 |
| γ5 | 0.1018 | 2.27** |
| γ6 | -0.1616 | -3.21*** |
| γ7 | 0.1413 | 2.56** |
| γ8 | -0.0789 | -1.40 |
| γ9 | 0.0526 | 1.16 |
| γ10 | -0.0540 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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