V-Lab
Taisei Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.13%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
39.17%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Month
39.27%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1167 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1295 | 9.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7762 | 34.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0049 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0945 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -0.1672 | -3.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.0532 | 1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.1025 | 2.27** |
| γ6 | -0.1610 | -3.18*** |
| γ7 | 0.1386 | 2.51** |
| γ8 | -0.0755 | -1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.0502 | 1.11 |
| γ10 | -0.0527 | -1.76* |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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