V-Lab
Taisei Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.35%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
38.53%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Month
38.93%
decreased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1373 | 7.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7796 | 35.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.0874 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.1600 | -3.10*** |
| γ4 | 0.0444 | 0.94 |
| γ5 | 0.1110 | 2.46** |
| γ6 | -0.1673 | -3.31*** |
| γ7 | 0.1415 | 2.58*** |
| γ8 | -0.0747 | -1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.0467 | 1.05 |
| γ10 | -0.0492 | -1.63 |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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