V-Lab
Taisei Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.38%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
41.31%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
41.05%
decreased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7426 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 33.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 465.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2725 | 8.83*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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