V-Lab
Taisei Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.87%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
35.92%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Month
36.10%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 5.27 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.7201 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0657 | 8.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9889 | 116.15*** |
| νDF | 5.2730 | 2.20** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7201 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0657 | 8.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 116.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2730 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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