Taisei Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
47.56%
increased by 3.34%
1 Week
47.37%
increased by 3.15%
1 Month
46.67%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7640 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 33.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 464.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2691 | 8.88*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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