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V-Lab

Nestle SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.73%

increased by 2.30%

1 Week

29.59%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

29.09%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Nestle SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3207
7.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2209
4.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4593
7.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3157
3.21***

Persistence:

0.459

Half-life:

1 days