V-Lab
Nestle SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.95%
increased by 3.35%
1 Week
27.28%
increased by 5.68%
1 Month
28.22%
increased by 6.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2275 | 7.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2178 | 4.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4613 | 7.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3557 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.461
Half-life:
1 days
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