V-Lab
Nestle SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.53%
increased by 1.58%
1 Week
27.67%
increased by 6.72%
1 Month
30.03%
increased by 9.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4590 | 15.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1560 | 2.56** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.7175 | 0.66 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0104 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.537
Half-life:
1 days
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