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V-Lab

Nestle SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

21.18%

decreased by 3.47%

1 Week

26.32%

increased by 1.67%

1 Month

28.30%

increased by 3.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Nestle SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2018 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2244
10.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4459
10.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8354
0.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0428
0.40
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7016
0.81

Persistence:

0.447

Half-life:

1 days