Nestle SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.18%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Week
26.32%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
28.30%
increased by 3.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2018 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2244 | 10.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4459 | 10.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8354 | 0.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0428 | 0.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7016 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.447
Half-life:
1 days
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