V-Lab
Rheinmetall AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
42.20%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
42.31%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
42.71%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9433 | 112.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0209 | -1.43 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0711 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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