V-Lab
Rheinmetall AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
53.55%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
53.59%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
53.71%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 132.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0200 | -1.49 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2498 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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