Rheinmetall AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
68.98%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
69.00%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
69.10%
decreased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 362 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0616 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9446 | 133.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0164 | -1.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5505 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
362 days
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