V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.82%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
40.12%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Month
38.59%
decreased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0875 | 25.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8253 | 112.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 1.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0147 | 3.57*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0138 | 5.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9842 | 338.81*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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