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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

40.82%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

40.12%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Month

38.59%

decreased by 3.54%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0875
25.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8253
112.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0077
1.53
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0147
3.57***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0138
5.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9842
338.81***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days