V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.56%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
35.85%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
36.56%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0882 | 25.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8258 | 113.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0059 | 1.18 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0149 | 3.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0138 | 5.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9843 | 338.93*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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