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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

35.56%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

35.85%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

36.56%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0882
25.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8258
113.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0059
1.18
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0149
3.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0138
5.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9843
338.93***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days