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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

47.17%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

47.54%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

48.86%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1113
14.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1022
35.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8950
326.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0065
-0.43
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3698
27.06***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days