V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
34.67%
decreased by 2.56%
1 Week
34.88%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Month
35.47%
decreased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1764 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2050 | 17.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7734 | 60.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0096 | 0.46 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4502 | 6.32*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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