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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

34.67%

decreased by 2.56%

1 Week

34.88%

decreased by 2.35%

1 Month

35.47%

decreased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1764
3.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2050
17.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7734
60.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0096
0.46
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4502
6.32***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days