V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
37.85%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
38.41%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
40.30%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2086 | 5.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0855 | 8.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8929 | 74.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0799 | -0.35 |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2086 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0855 | 8.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 74.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0799 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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