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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

37.85%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

38.41%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

40.30%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2086
5.15***
αARCH0.0855
8.26***
βGARCH0.8929
74.46***
γleverage-0.0799
-0.35

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2086
5.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0855
8.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8929
74.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0799
-0.35

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days