Fresenius SE & Co KGaA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
28.43%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
28.53%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
28.88%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0402 | 2.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0594 | 8.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9227 | 87.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.6937 | 4.41*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0402 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0594 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9227 | 87.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6937 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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