Fresenius Medical Care AG AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.59%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
34.46%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Month
33.98%
decreased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.81) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0351 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.0596 | 9.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9208 | 119.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.8058 | 3.15*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0351 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 9.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9208 | 119.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8058 | 3.15*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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