V-Lab
Fresenius Medical Care AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.07%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
30.83%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
32.96%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1697 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0585 | 4.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8933 | 32.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0391 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.0637 | 3.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.0248 | -1.57 |
| γ4 | 0.0068 | 0.38 |
| γ5 | -0.0159 | -1.14 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1697 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 32.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0391 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.0637 | 3.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.0248 | -1.57 |
| γ4 | 0.0068 | 0.38 |
| γ5 | -0.0159 | -1.14 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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