Loreal Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.33%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
24.39%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
24.58%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7924 | 8.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9396 | 40.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0063 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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