V-Lab
Loreal Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.05%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
25.07%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
25.12%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7923 | 8.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9393 | 40.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0062 | -2.24** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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