V-Lab
Loreal Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.75%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
25.72%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
25.65%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7921 | 8.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9393 | 40.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0063 | -2.24** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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