V-Lab
Loreal Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.01%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
24.08%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
24.33%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7942 | 8.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0303 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.9397 | 40.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0060 | -2.23** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7942 | 8.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9397 | 40.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0060 | -2.23** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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