V-Lab
Loreal Sa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
23.67%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
23.76%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
24.08%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7948 | 9.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0302 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.9398 | 40.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0059 | -2.24** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7948 | 9.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0302 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9398 | 40.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0059 | -2.24** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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