Siemens AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.53%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
33.55%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
33.64%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0244 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 84.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0568 | 1.19 |
| γ2 | 0.0214 | 0.27 |
| γ3 | -0.2309 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.2808 | 6.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.2169 | -4.52*** |
| γ6 | 0.1324 | 2.89*** |
| γ7 | -0.0405 | -0.95 |
| γ8 | -0.0027 | -0.06 |
| γ9 | -0.0099 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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