V-Lab
Siemens AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.43%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
28.75%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
29.81%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0165 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9150 | 83.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0565 | 1.20 |
| γ2 | 0.0209 | 0.27 |
| γ3 | -0.2294 | -4.48*** |
| γ4 | 0.2796 | 6.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.2165 | -4.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.1329 | 2.93*** |
| γ7 | -0.0403 | -0.95 |
| γ8 | -0.0047 | -0.11 |
| γ9 | -0.0076 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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