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V-Lab

Siemens AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

33.20%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

33.20%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

33.16%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Siemens AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 daysv = 6.31 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.0694
1.23
αscore0.0539
15.11***
βpersistence0.9967
384.82***
νDF6.3064
2.98***

0.997

Persistence

209d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.0694
1.23
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0539
15.11***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9967
384.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3064
2.98***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

209 days