Siemens AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.26%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
34.25%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Month
34.19%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0690 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 62.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 1,610.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0627 | 13.28*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
211 days
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