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Siemens AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

26.52%

increased by 2.29%

1 Week

26.56%

increased by 2.33%

1 Month

26.70%

increased by 2.47%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Siemens AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 207 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~207 daysv = 6.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9911
1.24
αARCH0.0531
15.45***
βGARCH0.9967
387.05***
νDF6.0536
3.27***

0.997

Persistence

207d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9911
1.24
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0531
15.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9967
387.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0536
3.27***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

207 days