Siemens AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
33.20%
1 Week
33.20%
1 Month
33.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.0694 | 1.23 |
| αscore | 0.0539 | 15.11*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9967 | 384.82*** |
| νDF | 6.3064 | 2.98*** |
0.997
Persistence209d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.0694 | 1.23 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0539 | 15.11*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 384.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3064 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
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