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Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

32.87%

increased by 2.99%

1 Week

32.89%

increased by 3.01%

1 Month

32.96%

increased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-lifev = 5.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.3771
2.35**
αARCH0.0658
5.12***
βGARCH0.9700
79.09***
νDF5.4025
1.38

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3771
2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
5.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9700
79.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4025
1.38

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days