V-Lab
Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
32.87%
increased by 2.99%
1 Week
32.89%
increased by 3.01%
1 Month
32.96%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-lifev = 5.40 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3771 | 2.35** |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 5.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9700 | 79.09*** |
| νDF | 5.4025 | 1.38 |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3771 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9700 | 79.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4025 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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