Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
26.72%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
27.01%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
28.01%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 6.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.6601 | 2.08** |
| αscore | 0.0577 | 5.39*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9826 | 115.66*** |
| νDF | 6.9353 | 1.01 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.6601 | 2.08** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0577 | 5.39*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9826 | 115.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9353 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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