Hangzhou Prevail Optoelectronic Equipment Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
37.70%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Week
40.81%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
48.28%
increased by 8.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 02:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.64 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 14.2965 | 1.50 |
| αscore | 0.1355 | 3.95*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9388 | 22.08*** |
| νDF | 4.6394 | 1.35 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 14.2965 | 1.50 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1355 | 3.95*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9388 | 22.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6394 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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