V-Lab
Hangzhou Prevail Optoelectronic Equipment Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
56.07%
increased by 1.71%
1 Week
56.48%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
57.63%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2017 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 4.27 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.2312 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.1215 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9442 | 21.06*** |
| νDF | 4.2662 | 1.48 |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.2312 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1215 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9442 | 21.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2662 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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