V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
29.54%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
30.24%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
32.42%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 4.16 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.1467 | 1.37 |
| αARCH | 0.0629 | 4.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9680 | 38.97*** |
| νDF | 4.1553 | 1.53 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1467 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9680 | 38.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1553 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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