V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.45%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
34.77%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
35.79%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1682 | 5.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 157.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1667 | 6.13*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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