V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
34.14%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Week
34.48%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
35.56%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1900 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 18.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9698 | 159.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1462 | 6.15*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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