V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
35.74%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Week
35.99%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Month
36.77%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 4.14 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.1721 | 1.37 |
| αARCH | 0.0635 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9675 | 38.42*** |
| νDF | 4.1440 | 1.54 |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1721 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9675 | 38.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1440 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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