V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
63.34%
increased by 25.58%
1 Week
51.94%
increased by 14.18%
1 Month
44.81%
increased by 7.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0823 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1481 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3868 | 3.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0752 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 0.1541 | 3.59*** |
| γ3 | -0.1512 | -5.31*** |
| γ4 | 0.1521 | 3.89*** |
Persistence:
0.535
Half-life:
1 days
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