Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.60%
increased by 5.47%
1 Week
40.95%
increased by 3.82%
1 Month
40.06%
increased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0812 | 7.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1490 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3850 | 3.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0766 | -2.60*** |
| γ2 | 0.1560 | 3.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.1506 | -5.17*** |
| γ4 | 0.1436 | 3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.534
Half-life:
1 days
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