V-Lab
IEC Education Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.19%
increased by 9.13%
1 Week
51.95%
increased by 12.89%
1 Month
58.06%
increased by 19.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 9, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2634 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2952 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5667 | 4.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2161 | -3.35*** |
| γ2 | 0.3754 | 3.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.2649 | -3.79*** |
| γ4 | 0.2700 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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