V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
20.93%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
21.44%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
22.85%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2455 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0512 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8982 | 57.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0527 | 0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.0199 | 0.23 |
| γ3 | -0.1976 | -3.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.1927 | 4.65*** |
| γ5 | -0.0542 | -1.37 |
| γ6 | -0.0649 | -1.65* |
| γ7 | 0.0831 | 2.13** |
| γ8 | -0.0247 | -0.65 |
| γ9 | -0.0514 | -1.04 |
| γ10 | 0.1498 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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