BASF SE Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.19%
increased by 2.95%
1 Week
24.16%
increased by 2.92%
1 Month
24.07%
increased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1294 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8974 | 77.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0493 | 3.17*** |
| γ2 | -0.0904 | -3.89*** |
| γ3 | 0.0750 | 5.21*** |
| γ4 | -0.0606 | -5.00*** |
| γ5 | 0.0574 | 4.08*** |
| γ6 | -0.0725 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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