Fresenius Medical Care AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.34%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
29.07%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
31.09%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 3, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1579 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 4.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 31.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0412 | -2.85*** |
| γ2 | 0.0672 | 3.25*** |
| γ3 | -0.0283 | -1.70* |
| γ4 | 0.0127 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.0276 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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