Shimizu Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
42.14%
increased by 3.64%
1 Week
42.34%
increased by 3.84%
1 Month
42.78%
increased by 4.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2762 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1303 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7708 | 31.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0525 | 4.95*** |
| γ2 | -0.0881 | -5.33*** |
| γ3 | 0.0518 | 4.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.0253 | -2.50** |
| γ5 | 0.0173 | 1.36 |
| γ6 | 0.0078 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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