Shimizu Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.12%
1 Week
28.98%
1 Month
24.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0777 | 7.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.2321 | 18.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7376 | 49.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0631 | 2.56** |
| δpower | 0.6129 | 6.92*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0777 | 7.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2321 | 18.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7376 | 49.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0631 | 2.56** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6129 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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