V-Lab
Shimizu Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
39.76%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
41.40%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
42.23%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 18.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6927 | 61.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0944 | 11.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1910 | 1.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1234 | 1.62 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8394 | 8.44*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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