V-Lab
Shimizu Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.02%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
40.20%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
42.92%
increased by 5.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 18.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6925 | 61.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0945 | 11.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1906 | 1.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1233 | 1.62 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8395 | 8.47*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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