V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
128.25%
1 Week
129.08%
1 Month
131.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 66% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0523 | 9.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8232 | 45.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0208 | -3.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7446 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1248 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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