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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

114.62%

decreased by 2.49%

1 Week

117.86%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

121.74%

increased by 4.63%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 62% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0521
9.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8233
45.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0200
-2.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.33
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7347
0.83
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1312
0.09

Persistence:

0.865

Half-life:

5 days