V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
114.62%
1 Week
117.86%
1 Month
121.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 62% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0521 | 9.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8233 | 45.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0200 | -2.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7347 | 0.83 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1312 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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