S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index

How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	76
αARCH	0.0521	2.85***
βGARCH	0.8242	11.69***
γleverage	-0.0201	-0.87
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	1.35
λ₂forecast adj.	0.7350	3.69***
λ₃tau persistence	0.1299	0.51

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	76
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0521	2.85***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8242	11.69***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0201	-0.87
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	1.35
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.7350	3.69***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.1299	0.51

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GCM Corp Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

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