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V-Lab
V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

109.85%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

110.17%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

111.41%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~166 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3411
0.81
αARCH0.0165
2.64***
βGARCH0.9701
66.90***
γleverage0.0185
0.81

0.996

Persistence

166d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3411
0.81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
2.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9701
66.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0185
0.81

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

166 days