V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
109.85%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
110.17%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
111.41%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~166 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3411 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.0165 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9701 | 66.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0185 | 0.81 |
0.996
Persistence166d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3411 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0165 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9701 | 66.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0185 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
166 days
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