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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

114.91%

increased by 2.25%

1 Week

115.19%

increased by 2.53%

1 Month

116.24%

increased by 3.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~168 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3403
0.81
αARCH0.0163
2.63***
βGARCH0.9701
67.18***
γleverage0.0189
0.83

0.996

Persistence

168d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3403
0.81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0163
2.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9701
67.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0189
0.83

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

168 days