V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
114.91%
increased by 2.25%
1 Week
115.19%
increased by 2.53%
1 Month
116.24%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~168 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3403 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.0163 | 2.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9701 | 67.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0189 | 0.83 |
0.996
Persistence168d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3403 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0163 | 2.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9701 | 67.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0189 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
168 days
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