V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
43.93%
decreased by 4.50%
1 Week
52.96%
increased by 4.53%
1 Month
59.06%
increased by 10.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.69* |
| αARCH | 0.4258 | 0.81 |
| βGARCH | 0.2800 | 0.97 |
| γleverage | -0.0846 | -0.11 |
0.664
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4258 | 0.81 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2800 | 0.97 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0846 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.664
Half-life:
2 days
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