V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
55.97%
increased by 6.17%
1 Week
59.24%
increased by 9.44%
1 Month
61.81%
increased by 12.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.4273 | 0.80 |
| βGARCH | 0.3024 | 1.05 |
| γleverage | -0.0987 | -0.13 |
0.680
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4273 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3024 | 1.05 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0987 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.680
Half-life:
2 days
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