V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
73.91%
decreased by 32.98%
1 Week
72.56%
decreased by 34.33%
1 Month
70.44%
decreased by 36.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 235% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1830 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7138 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3684 | 6.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5008 | -2.25** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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