Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
57.78%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
66.11%
increased by 6.75%
1 Month
69.34%
increased by 9.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6738 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.3274 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.1269 | 0.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.7079 | -2.21** |
0.454
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6738 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3274 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1269 | 0.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.7079 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
0.454
Half-life:
1 days
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