V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
63.54%
increased by 2.95%
1 Week
70.41%
increased by 9.82%
1 Month
72.62%
increased by 12.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5950 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3319 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0311 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.1538 | -2.37** |
Persistence:
0.363
Half-life:
1 days
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