Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
56.16%
decreased by 13.58%
1 Week
64.31%
decreased by 5.43%
1 Month
68.00%
decreased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7158 | 5.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.3436 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.1722 | 0.71 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3913 | -2.03** |
0.516
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7158 | 5.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3436 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1722 | 0.71 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3913 | -2.03** |
Persistence:
0.516
Half-life:
1 days
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