V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
66.15%
decreased by 23.20%
1 Week
69.63%
decreased by 19.72%
1 Month
73.78%
decreased by 15.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7798 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4260 | 1.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3610 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.7861 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
0.787
Half-life:
3 days
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