V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
66.74%
increased by 3.97%
1 Week
71.17%
increased by 8.40%
1 Month
72.55%
increased by 9.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5939 | 5.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.3101 | 1.77* |
| βGARCH | 0.0246 | 0.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.6002 | -2.65*** |
0.335
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5939 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3101 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0246 | 0.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.6002 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.335
Half-life:
1 days
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