V-Lab
NX Filtration N.V. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
56.28%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
63.61%
increased by 7.58%
1 Month
67.39%
increased by 11.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2021 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7230 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.2454 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3140 | 2.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.7698 | 1.89* |
| γ2 | -7.5115 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 0.9366 | 0.25 |
| γ4 | 4.8702 | 1.40 |
| γ5 | -3.5925 | -1.02 |
| γ6 | -6.4998 | -1.53 |
| γ7 | 10.3376 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -8.5376 | -2.78*** |
| γ9 | 10.6699 | 3.65*** |
| γ10 | -9.7431 | -4.05*** |
0.559
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7230 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2454 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3140 | 2.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.7698 | 1.89* |
| γ2 | -7.5115 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 0.9366 | 0.25 |
| γ4 | 4.8702 | 1.40 |
| γ5 | -3.5925 | -1.02 |
| γ6 | -6.4998 | -1.53 |
| γ7 | 10.3376 | 2.75*** |
| γ8 | -8.5376 | -2.78*** |
| γ9 | 10.6699 | 3.65*** |
| γ10 | -9.7431 | -4.05*** |
Persistence:
0.559
Half-life:
1 days
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