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RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

48.79%

decreased by 3.31%

1 Week

53.71%

increased by 1.61%

1 Month

65.09%

increased by 12.99%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4577
1.61
αARCH0.3268
6.23***
βGARCH0.6092
10.45***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.5782
0.03
γ214.9616
0.32
γ3-56.6190
-1.05
γ487.4295
1.63
γ5-71.0339
-2.00**
γ633.1653
1.43
γ7-7.4621
-0.32
γ8-13.2325
-0.75
γ925.0485
2.32**
γ10-16.9824
-2.90***

0.936

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4577
1.61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3268
6.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6092
10.45***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.5782
0.03
γ214.9616
0.32
γ3-56.6190
-1.05
γ487.4295
1.63
γ5-71.0339
-2.00**
γ633.1653
1.43
γ7-7.4621
-0.32
γ8-13.2325
-0.75
γ925.0485
2.32**
γ10-16.9824
-2.90***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days