V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
69.93%
increased by 5.17%
1 Week
69.12%
increased by 4.36%
1 Month
66.25%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6590 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3333 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6429 | 9.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.0554 | -0.34 |
| γ2 | 27.5556 | 0.65 |
| γ3 | -86.6085 | -1.38 |
| γ4 | 158.7589 | 1.91* |
| γ5 | -145.6610 | -2.27** |
| γ6 | 71.8526 | 3.06*** |
| γ7 | -32.1708 | -3.07*** |
| γ8 | 16.3142 | 1.14 |
| γ9 | -1.1840 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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