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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

69.93%

increased by 5.17%

1 Week

69.12%

increased by 4.36%

1 Month

66.25%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6590
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3333
5.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6429
9.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-7.0554
-0.34
γ227.5556
0.65
γ3-86.6085
-1.38
γ4158.7589
1.91*
γ5-145.6610
-2.27**
γ671.8526
3.06***
γ7-32.1708
-3.07***
γ816.3142
1.14
γ9-1.1840
-0.09

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days