V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.88%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
29.30%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
30.17%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3564 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2899 | 5.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6080 | 9.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 5.1027 | 0.21 |
| γ2 | 9.4114 | 0.20 |
| γ3 | -48.7331 | -1.08 |
| γ4 | 63.4985 | 1.90* |
| γ5 | -38.2468 | -1.99** |
| γ6 | 5.4501 | 0.29 |
| γ7 | 15.1049 | 1.05 |
| γ8 | -24.5845 | -2.93*** |
| γ9 | 15.5342 | 1.52 |
| γ10 | -0.1591 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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