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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

28.88%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

29.30%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

30.17%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3564
1.63
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2899
5.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6080
9.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ15.1027
0.21
γ29.4114
0.20
γ3-48.7331
-1.08
γ463.4985
1.90*
γ5-38.2468
-1.99**
γ65.4501
0.29
γ715.1049
1.05
γ8-24.5845
-2.93***
γ915.5342
1.52
γ10-0.1591
-0.02

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days