V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
75.58%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
76.01%
increased by 1.81%
1 Month
77.47%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7810 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.3427 | 5.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6344 | 10.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.2615 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | 16.4771 | 0.51 |
| γ3 | -77.3942 | -1.33 |
| γ4 | 159.9362 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | -155.5303 | -2.08** |
| γ6 | 81.6708 | 2.89*** |
| γ7 | -41.2200 | -4.92*** |
| γ8 | 28.5260 | 3.72*** |
| γ9 | -12.2645 | -1.82* |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7810 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3427 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6344 | 10.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.2615 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | 16.4771 | 0.51 |
| γ3 | -77.3942 | -1.33 |
| γ4 | 159.9362 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | -155.5303 | -2.08** |
| γ6 | 81.6708 | 2.89*** |
| γ7 | -41.2200 | -4.92*** |
| γ8 | 28.5260 | 3.72*** |
| γ9 | -12.2645 | -1.82* |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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