V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
124.26%
decreased by 3.42%
1 Week
132.87%
increased by 5.19%
1 Month
136.51%
increased by 8.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7723 | 5.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1389 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3311 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.8737 | -1.65* |
| γ2 | 1.1814 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.9612 | -2.11** |
| γ4 | 1.6045 | 3.52*** |
| γ5 | -1.2169 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 0.0344 | 0.07 |
| γ7 | 0.4346 | 0.87 |
| γ8 | -0.3129 | -0.76 |
0.470
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7723 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1389 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3311 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.8737 | -1.65* |
| γ2 | 1.1814 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.9612 | -2.11** |
| γ4 | 1.6045 | 3.52*** |
| γ5 | -1.2169 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 0.0344 | 0.07 |
| γ7 | 0.4346 | 0.87 |
| γ8 | -0.3129 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.470
Half-life:
1 days
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