V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
129.01%
decreased by 8.72%
1 Week
134.45%
decreased by 3.28%
1 Month
137.42%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7684 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1270 | 3.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4335 | 3.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.8850 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 1.2064 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | -1.0019 | -2.07** |
| γ4 | 1.6413 | 3.38*** |
| γ5 | -1.2162 | -2.37** |
| γ6 | 0.0246 | 0.05 |
| γ7 | 0.4282 | 0.80 |
| γ8 | -0.3070 | -0.69 |
Persistence:
0.560
Half-life:
1 days
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