V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
141.95%
increased by 6.02%
1 Week
136.29%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
133.13%
decreased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7681 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4164 | 3.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9181 | -1.63 |
| γ2 | 1.2664 | 1.60 |
| γ3 | -1.0645 | -2.16** |
| γ4 | 1.6994 | 3.44*** |
| γ5 | -1.2419 | -2.37** |
| γ6 | 0.0483 | 0.09 |
| γ7 | 0.3639 | 0.66 |
| γ8 | -0.2392 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.546
Half-life:
1 days
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