V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
160.22%
1 Week
160.13%
1 Month
159.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 167 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.44 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9715 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 13.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9303 | 193.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0226 | 0.98 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.4391 | 28.64*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
167 days
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