V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
191.11%
1 Week
190.92%
1 Month
190.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Sep 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.39 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9023 | 1.24 |
| αARCH | 0.0569 | 3.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9296 | 48.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.0224 | 0.25 |
| δpower | 2.3947 | 7.33*** |
0.996
Persistence194d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9023 | 1.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0569 | 3.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9296 | 48.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0224 | 0.25 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3947 | 7.33*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
194 days
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