V-Lab
Sats As Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
25.01%
1 Week
25.31%
1 Month
25.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1874 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.2848 | 9.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6517 | 18.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0665 | 1.60 |
| δpower | 0.8464 | 2.90*** |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1874 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2848 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6517 | 18.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0665 | 1.60 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8464 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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