V-Lab
Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.61%
1 Week
35.64%
1 Month
40.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4629 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2916 | 36.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6616 | 94.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0386 | -4.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6864 | 10.54*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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