Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.51%
1 Week
44.81%
1 Month
45.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4579 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2915 | 36.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6622 | 94.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0392 | -4.72*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6730 | 10.32*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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