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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

28.26%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

27.28%

decreased by 2.44%

1 Month

24.47%

decreased by 5.25%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0495
12.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2104
58.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7869
174.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0248
-3.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8144
8.15***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days