V-Lab
Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.26%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
27.28%
decreased by 2.44%
1 Month
24.47%
decreased by 5.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0495 | 12.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2104 | 58.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7869 | 174.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0248 | -3.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8144 | 8.15*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
Other Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on International Equities