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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

32.12%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

32.53%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

34.03%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 59% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0814
12.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0805
16.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9273
359.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0298
-4.17***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days