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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.88%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

29.38%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

31.19%

increased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 58% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0815
12.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0807
16.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9270
359.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0297
-4.15***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days