Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.12%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
32.53%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
34.03%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 59% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0814 | 12.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 16.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9273 | 359.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0298 | -4.17*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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