V-Lab
Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.87%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
27.43%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
29.46%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 57% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0811 | 12.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0808 | 16.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9267 | 358.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0294 | -4.11*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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