Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.30%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
33.50%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
34.29%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.2108 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 60.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 2,009.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9112 | 24.01*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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