V-Lab
Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.44%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
26.74%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
27.90%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.0401 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 60.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 1,985.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9422 | 23.55*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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