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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

31.21%

decreased by 1.80%

1 Week

31.62%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

33.18%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 04:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 daysv = 5.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst12.4158
1.11
αARCH0.0782
12.87***
βGARCH0.9939
191.13***
νDF5.0952
3.40***

0.994

Persistence

113d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.4158
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0782
12.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
191.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0952
3.40***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days