V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.99%
1 Week
28.49%
1 Month
30.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 12.3568 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0783 | 12.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9939 | 191.35*** |
| νDF | 5.1077 | 3.39*** |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.3568 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 12.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 191.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1077 | 3.39*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
Other Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities