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V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

37.77%

increased by 2.02%

1 Week

38.05%

increased by 2.30%

1 Month

39.11%

increased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.5893
4.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0785
51.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
768.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0626
13.83***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days