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V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

36.63%

increased by 0.87%

1 Week

36.93%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

38.08%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.6895
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0787
52.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
769.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0334
14.01***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

114 days