Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
25.34%
1 Week
25.92%
1 Month
28.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 11.8439 | 1.12 |
| αscore | 0.0828 | 10.89*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9930 | 168.17*** |
| νDF | 5.8315 | 2.36** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 11.8439 | 1.12 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0828 | 10.89*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 168.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8315 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
Other Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities