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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

25.34%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

25.92%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

28.02%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 daysv = 5.83 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run11.8439
1.12
αscore0.0828
10.89***
βpersistence0.9930
168.17***
νDF5.8315
2.36**

0.993

Persistence

99d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

11.8439
1.12
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0828
10.89***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9930
168.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8315
2.36**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days