V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.77%
increased by 2.02%
1 Week
38.05%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
39.11%
increased by 3.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.5893 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 51.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 768.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0626 | 13.83*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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