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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.99%

increased by 1.94%

1 Week

28.49%

increased by 2.44%

1 Month

30.34%

increased by 4.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 daysv = 5.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst12.3568
1.11
αARCH0.0783
12.89***
βGARCH0.9939
191.35***
νDF5.1077
3.39***

0.994

Persistence

113d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.3568
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0783
12.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
191.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1077
3.39***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days