Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.63%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
36.93%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
38.08%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.6895 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0787 | 52.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 769.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0334 | 14.01*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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