V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
31.21%
1 Week
31.62%
1 Month
33.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 04:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 12.4158 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0782 | 12.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9939 | 191.13*** |
| νDF | 5.0952 | 3.40*** |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.4158 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0782 | 12.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 191.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0952 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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