V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.03%
increased by 11.12%
1 Week
49.37%
increased by 11.46%
1 Month
50.18%
increased by 12.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4479 | 7.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1057 | 16.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9230 | 82.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6055 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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