V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
47.12%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Week
47.77%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Month
49.32%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 3.58 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 10.4873 | 1.85* |
| αARCH | 0.1060 | 4.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9217 | 20.32*** |
| νDF | 3.5814 | 2.08** |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4873 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1060 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9217 | 20.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5814 | 2.08** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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