UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.98%
increased by 6.15%
1 Week
53.91%
increased by 6.08%
1 Month
53.61%
increased by 5.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4695 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 118.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 2,379.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4888 | 88.40*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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