V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.54%
1 Week
27.63%
1 Month
28.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 219 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3820 | 1.72* |
| αARCH | 0.0819 | 29.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9968 | 595.13*** |
| νDF | 3.4744 | 22.38*** |
0.997
Persistence219d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3820 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0819 | 29.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 595.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4744 | 22.38*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
219 days
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