V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
32.46%
1 Week
32.52%
1 Month
32.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 220 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.4432 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0822 | 29.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9969 | 603.43*** |
| νDF | 3.4796 | 22.40*** |
0.997
Persistence220d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4432 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0822 | 29.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 603.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4796 | 22.40*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
220 days
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