V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.21%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
33.26%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
33.45%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 214 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3872 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 118.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 2,286.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4856 | 87.41*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
214 days
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