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V-Lab

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

27.54%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

27.63%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

28.01%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 14, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 219 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~219 daysv = 3.47 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.3820
1.72*
αARCH0.0819
29.54***
βGARCH0.9968
595.13***
νDF3.4744
22.38***

0.997

Persistence

219d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3820
1.72*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0819
29.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9968
595.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4744
22.38***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

219 days