UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
52.57%
1 Week
52.53%
1 Month
52.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 376 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 7.2397 | 2.10** |
| αscore | 0.0922 | 20.08*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9982 | 1,306.49*** |
| νDF | 6.0733 | 5.76*** |
0.998
Persistence376d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 7.2397 | 2.10** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0922 | 20.08*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,306.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0733 | 5.76*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
376 days
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