V-Lab
Spenda Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
11,038.56%
decreased by 2,006.31%
1 Week
11,027.53%
decreased by 2,017.34%
1 Month
10,983.58%
decreased by 2,061.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1293 | 14.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 665.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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