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V-Lab

Spenda Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

343.40%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

342.61%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Month

339.49%

decreased by 4.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 240 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~240 daysv = 15.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run194.0476
1.68*
αscore0.1170
6.49***
βpersistence0.9971
630.69***
νDF15.8011
0.91

0.997

Persistence

240d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

194.0476
1.68*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1170
6.49***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9971
630.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

15.8011
0.91

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

240 days