Spenda Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
343.40%
1 Week
342.61%
1 Month
339.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 240 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 194.0476 | 1.68* |
| αscore | 0.1170 | 6.49*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9971 | 630.69*** |
| νDF | 15.8011 | 0.91 |
0.997
Persistence240d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 194.0476 | 1.68* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1170 | 6.49*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 630.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 15.8011 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
240 days
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