Planetel Spa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
45.98%
decreased by 3.00%
1 Week
43.85%
decreased by 5.13%
1 Month
39.92%
decreased by 9.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 6.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.3718 | 2.64*** |
| αscore | 0.1647 | 2.11** |
| βpersistence | 0.8548 | 12.08*** |
| νDF | 6.2559 | 0.60 |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.3718 | 2.64*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1647 | 2.11** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8548 | 12.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2559 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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