GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
66.88%
increased by 1.75%
1 Week
70.39%
increased by 5.26%
1 Month
81.91%
increased by 16.78%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:46 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 9.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 128.2339 | 1.14 |
| αscore | 0.1200 | 3.15*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9854 | 86.00*** |
| νDF | 9.6641 | 0.57 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 128.2339 | 1.14 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1200 | 3.15*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 86.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6641 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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