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GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

66.88%

increased by 1.75%

1 Week

70.39%

increased by 5.26%

1 Month

81.91%

increased by 16.78%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:46 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 9.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run128.2339
1.14
αscore0.1200
3.15***
βpersistence0.9854
86.00***
νDF9.6641
0.57

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

128.2339
1.14
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1200
3.15***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9854
86.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6641
0.57

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days