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GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

4,839.19%

decreased by 117.05%

1 Week

4,839.41%

decreased by 116.83%

1 Month

4,840.26%

decreased by 115.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst97,078.2578
3.11***
αARCH0.0474
23.58***
βGARCH0.9990
2,991.02***
νDF2.0005

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

97,078.2578
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
23.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,991.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0005

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days