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V-Lab
V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

111.65%

increased by 1.40%

1 Week

111.93%

increased by 1.68%

1 Month

112.99%

increased by 2.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~124 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3993
1.01
αARCH0.0259
2.65***
βGARCH0.9685
62.58***

0.994

Persistence

124d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3993
1.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0259
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9685
62.58***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days