V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
111.65%
increased by 1.40%
1 Week
111.93%
increased by 1.68%
1 Month
112.99%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~124 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3993 | 1.01 |
| αARCH | 0.0259 | 2.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9685 | 62.58*** |
0.994
Persistence124d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3993 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0259 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9685 | 62.58*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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