V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
55.50%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
61.81%
increased by 6.07%
1 Month
67.85%
increased by 12.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1718 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5738 | 7.36*** |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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