City of London Investment Group PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.55%
1 Week
8,070,391,217.28%
1 Month
628,932,238,003,427,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 19254 trading days (~76.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9999 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
19254 days
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