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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.55%

increased by 15.80%

1 Week

8,070,391,217.28%

increased by 8,070,391,204.53%

1 Month

628,932,238,003,427,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 628,932,238,003,427,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 19254 trading days (~76.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9999
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

19254 days