V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.91%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
12.68%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
12.48%
decreased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0493 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2467 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0058 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0876 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0019 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8279 |
Persistence:
0.293
Half-life:
1 days
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